Seminars

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COMPASS (Combined OCE MPO ATM Seminar Series) WEDNESDAY

FALL 2017
(3:00 SLAB Seminar Room, unless stated otherwise)

Nov 01 --- Graham Cook (New Modern HK, Hong Kong/US and GRC Research, New Hampshire)

"Natural Catastrophes - Insurance, Reinsurance and Models"

I will start by giving an introduction to the insurance and reinsurance industries and cover some of the different insurance products that are available including some of the more exotic products such as Cat Bonds, Sidecars, ILW's etc. We will then talk about the basics of natural and man-made catastrophe model development and who are the main players.  Finally, we will talk about modeling hazards around the world and end with specifics relevant to Florida and Miami.

Nov 02 --- Dr. Thomas Wahl (University of Central Florida)

"Ignored but not Forgotten – Unappreciated Drivers of Changes in Coastal Flood Risk"

Increasing coastal flood risk is one of the major consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) and will make costly adaptation, and in extreme cases migration to higher ground, inevitable. Extensive research has been directed toward reconstructing past SLR and developing global and regional SLR projections, which are used in impact and adaptation studies to facilitate risk-informed decision making. These projections do not account for the significant temporal variability that is evident in most sea-level records at seasonal to multi-decadal time scales. Furthermore, in order to understand coastal impacts under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions, not only robust SLR projections are required but also a profound knowledge of the drivers and occurrence of present-day and future extreme sea levels (ESL), as ESL drive the impacts. In this context historical data suggests that long-term SLR was the main driver for changes in the statistics of extremes. However, variability in the storm surge climate that is superimposed on any long-term trend can modulate flood risk at multi-decadal time scales, and has largely been ignored so far. Finally, recent events like hurricanes Harvey or Irma have highlighted the vulnerability of coastal cities to combined storm surge and precipitation/discharge events, which can lead to compound flooding. While the relationship between the two flood drivers in coastal areas are well-known, current risk assessment techniques are mainly univariate (i.e., consider one driver at the time) and ignore the dependence between them leading to underestimation or overestimation of the underlying risk.

In my presentation I will discuss some of the abovementioned drivers in changes of coastal flood risk (with a focus on the U.S. Gulf and east coast) which have been widely ignored in previous assessments but are important to be accounted for to fully understand the potential impacts and adaptation needs. In particular, this will include changes in the seasonal sea level cycle, multi-decadal variability in extreme sea levels, and compound flood risk from storm surge and precipitation.

Nov 08 --- Ben Kirtman (RSMAS)

"The Subseasonal Prediction Experiment (SubX)"

Nov 15 --- Ryan Kramer (1-hour student seminar)

"Radiative Forcing and Response on the Hydrological Cycle"

Changes to the hydrological cycle will be among the most societally impactful consequences of climate change.  Global-mean precipitation, a proxy for hydrological cycle strength, is robustly projected to increase with global warming in climate models.  However, the magnitude of this change is uncertain and observed trends have proven somewhat inconsistent or inconclusive.  On the global scale, energy balances in the climate system constrain precipitation. From this perspective, we use climate model simulations to investigate whether observed precipitation change is a good representation of future trends and evaluate radiative forcing and responses in the atmosphere and at the surface to understand the drivers of hydrological cycle change and identify sources of inter-model spread in projections.  We heavily use the radiative kernel technique to quantify the instantaneous radiative forcing, rapid adjustments and radiative feedbacks that act on precipitation.  Importantly, we explore why recent literature using this methodology to study hydrological cycle change has offered conflicting results, and what this implies for how we evaluate radiaitive responses in models and observations, more generally.

Dec 06 --- Rafael Goncalves (1-hour student seminar)

Dec 18 --- Dr. Elnaz Naghibi, Monday, 3:00

Feb 28 --- Dr. Yoshiaki Miyamoto (RSMAS)

"A Dynamical Mechanism for Secondary Eyewall Formation"

Mar 07 --- Kerry Emanuel (MIT)

Apr 11 --- Dr. Colwell